Key Takeaways
JPMorgan warned that global food inflation could climb from 2.8 percent in early 2026 to about 5 percent by the first half of 2027.
The bank pointed to fertilizer supply as the biggest risk, with no strategic reserve to cushion a disruption the way oil reserves cushion fuel.
Strait of Hormuz shipping risks and a possible historic El Nino sit behind the forecast, which the bank says will not be short-lived.
JPMorgan warned this month that the next global food crisis may already be forming, with food inflation set to climb sharply into 2027. In a report titled "Food Security Is National Security," the bank projected global food inflation rising from 2.8 percent in the first half of 2026 to about 5 percent in the first half of 2027.
The bank's analysts laid the risk on what they called the five Ws, war, weather, warehousing, water and waste. The nearest-term trigger is fertilizer. Unlike oil, which countries can release from strategic reserves, there is no backup supply for fertilizer, so a disruption feeds straight into crop yields and prices. JPMorgan said the squeeze traces to concentrated production and export controls among a handful of countries.
Two shocks sit behind the forecast. Possible shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for fuel and fertilizer inputs, and a possible historic El Nino that could weaken harvests. A senior economist wrote that the pressure is not a short-lived shock and has reduced the odds of near-term relief on prices.
For households, the warning is concrete. One US government estimate cited alongside the report put potential grocery price increases above 12 percent.
JPMorgan's fertilizer and shipping concerns connect directly to the Strait of Hormuz standoff the newsroom has tracked for weeks, where tanker crossings have collapsed, and to a US farm bill that failed in committee as food banks report record demand. That number, food inflation near 5 percent, is worth sitting with.
People Also Ask
What did JPMorgan say about a global food crisis?
It warned that food inflation could nearly double into 2027, driven by fertilizer shortages, Strait of Hormuz shipping risks and weather, and that the pressure will not be short-lived.
Why is fertilizer a bigger risk than oil?
Because there is no strategic reserve for fertilizer the way there is for oil, so a supply disruption passes straight into crop yields and food prices.
How much could food prices rise?
JPMorgan projected global food inflation near 5 percent in the first half of 2027, and one US government estimate cited alongside it put grocery increases above 12 percent.
What are JPMorgan's five Ws?
War, weather, warehousing, water and waste, the five pressures the bank says are compounding into a higher and longer food inflation cycle.