Key Takeaways
President Trump declined on July 1 to renew USMCA for a 16-year term at the pact's first joint review, moving the US, Canada, and Mexico to annual reviews until they agree to extend or the deal expires in 2036, per Food Business News.
Canada and Mexico both publicly backed extension, and Canada and Mexico consistently rank among the largest export markets for US farm goods.
Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber warns yearly renegotiation invites protectionist proposals and retaliation, and makes cross-border investment harder to justify.
The trade agreement that governs food moving across North America just lost its long time horizon. President Donald Trump declined on July 1 to confirm a 16-year extension of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement at its first scheduled joint review, Food Business News reported. The pact stays in force, but under its own rules the three countries now hold annual reviews until all sides agree to extend, or until the agreement expires in 2036.
The administration says the review process keeps the deal current and creates leverage. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said before the deadline that the US would not extend the agreement in its current form, pointing to trade imbalances, Canadian dairy and digital policies, Mexican agriculture and labor rules, and rules of origin. Canada and Mexico had both publicly backed extension.
For agriculture, the risk is less about any single tariff and more about permanent uncertainty. North American food systems have been integrating since NAFTA took effect in 1994, and Canada and Mexico rank among the largest export markets for US farm goods while supplying American consumers with year-round produce and livestock products. Joe Glauber of the International Food Policy Research Institute, formerly USDA's chief economist, told the outlet that most of the administration's priorities are not about farming at all. "Unfortunately, this is another case where agriculture really suffers collateral damage," he said, warning that yearly reopenings could spiral into the protectionist tit-for-tat of the 1980s.
Trade volatility lands on food prices, and food prices land on the people least able to absorb them. That chain is already visible in the farm bill fight over SNAP costs and in the US food aid budget. Worth watching every July from now on.
People Also Ask
Did Trump end the USMCA?
No. The agreement remains in force. By declining to confirm a 16-year extension at the July 1, 2026 joint review, the US moved the pact into annual reviews that continue until all three countries agree to extend it or it expires in 2036.
What happens to USMCA now?
The US, Canada, and Mexico will conduct joint reviews every year. Each review is a chance to renegotiate terms, which the administration frames as leverage and trade economists describe as recurring uncertainty for cross-border businesses.
How does the USMCA review affect food prices?
North American agriculture is deeply integrated, with year-round produce, livestock, and grain crossing borders duty free. Annual renegotiation raises the odds of tariffs and retaliation, which feed into consumer food prices over time.
Why does USMCA matter for agriculture?
Canada and Mexico are two of the largest export markets for US farm goods, and the agreement guarantees the market access that farm investments depend on. Economists say losing that certainty makes long-term cross-border investment harder to justify.