Key Takeaways
The 60-day US-Iran memorandum of understanding signed in June expired Monday with no peace deal and no negotiations under way.
Iran's foreign ministry says Tehran and Oman have agreed a transit route map for the Strait of Hormuz, with no fee details and no joint statement yet.
Crossings fell 19.5 percent last week to three vessels on August 16, against roughly 130 a day before the war, and CENTCOM says it has redirected 64 commercial ships.
By Tuesday Trump had ruled out an extension and called for Iran's surrender, Tehran said it will shift to a fully offensive posture, and a vessel in the strait was struck by an unknown projectile.
Monday marked 60 days since the United States and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding meant to produce a wider peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The period expired with no agreement and no talks under way.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told reporters in Tehran that the deadline had already lost its meaning, saying negotiations never began because Washington started violating the memorandum shortly after the June 18 signing. He also said Tehran and Oman had settled the shape of future shipping through the waterway, telling reporters that "an understanding has been reached regarding the map of the transit route," according to CBS News. He did not say whether ships will be charged, and both governments are still working toward a joint statement. President Trump, speaking in the Oval Office, said Iran wants a deal but not the kind he considers necessary, and that he is not in a hurry.
The numbers underneath the diplomacy are the part worth sitting with. Crossings through the strait fell 19.5 percent last week according to Marine Traffic and Kpler, from 19 on August 11 down to three on August 16. Before the war began in late February, roughly 130 ships passed through every day. US Central Command said Monday it has redirected 64 commercial vessels under its naval blockade, disabled three and boarded two.
By Tuesday the picture had hardened. Trump ruled out extending the expired agreement, said Iran should surrender and threatened to bomb Oman if it obstructed efforts to reopen the waterway, according to Reuters. A senior Iranian official said Tehran will move to a fully offensive military posture and would strike to break the US naval blockade if diplomacy fails. The UK Maritime Trade Operations then reported that a vessel transiting the strait was hit by an unknown projectile, damaging its engine room and injuring a crew member. Crude futures climbed above $90 a barrel and the US average price of gasoline set a mid-August record at $4.06 a gallon.
That collapse in traffic is a food story before it is anything else. The Food and Agriculture Organization warned in May that the closure is not a temporary shipping disruption but a systemic agrifood shock that could produce a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months, moving through energy, then fertilizer, then seeds, then yields, then the shelf. The FAO Food Price Index had already risen three months running by April, and the World Food Programme has said it will prioritize feeding 110 million people in 2026 because it cannot fund everyone who needs help.
None of this is new. What is new is that the only written agreement between the two countries has run out, and the thing standing in its place is a route map that neither Tehran nor Muscat has published. WYDE has tracked the IMF's growth downgrade over the energy shock since July, and the same transmission line runs through disasters like the earthquake on Indonesia's Flores island, where a shock became a food emergency inside a day. Worth watching.
People Also Ask
When did the US-Iran memorandum of understanding expire?
Monday, August 17, 2026, 60 days after the June 18 signing. Both governments confirmed no wider deal had been reached, and Iran's foreign ministry said the 60-day period had no practical relevance because talks never started.
Is the Strait of Hormuz open?
No. It remains effectively closed to normal commercial traffic. Three vessels crossed on August 16, against roughly 130 a day before the war began in late February.
What did Iran and Oman agree on?
Iran's foreign ministry says the two countries settled on a map of the transit route for future shipping through the strait. Whether ships will pay fees, and when a joint statement comes, are both still open.
How does the Hormuz closure affect food prices?
The FAO warned in May that the closure is a systemic agrifood shock capable of producing a severe global food price crisis within six to 12 months, working through energy costs, then fertilizer, then crop yields, before it reaches consumers.