Key Takeaways:
US-linked wallets traded about $571 million in Polymarket political markets over the trailing 12 months, more than any other country, according to a July 5 report from onchain analysis firm Allium.
Americans bet disproportionately on geopolitics, 46% of US notional versus 36% platform-wide, and the US cohort's single largest market was a $20.8 million bet on whether Ukraine's president would wear a suit.
The findings sharpen a live question for the CFTC as it weighs new prediction market rules: US demand did not disappear under the ban, it moved offshore and outside US oversight.
Polymarket cannot legally serve US customers, and Americans were still its biggest national political-betting crowd over the past year. Wallets tied to the US traded about $571 million in notional value across Polymarket's political markets in the trailing 12 months, ahead of Hong Kong's $422 million, according to a report published July 5 by onchain analysis firm Allium, first reported by CoinDesk.
The block fails because of how the platform is built, Allium argues. Polymarket runs on crypto rails, a wallet and stablecoins with no bank or broker in between, so there is no account for a regulator to deny and no payment for a bank to stop. A VPN plus an existing wallet is enough to get in. Allium tags countries by onchain wallet behavior rather than IP address, could tie only about 6% of political-market wallets to a country, and says the figures should be read as directional rather than exact.
US Traders Favor the Geopolitics Markets Regulated Venues Do Not List
Geopolitics made up 46% of US notional against 36% for the platform as a whole, while elections drew 16% from US wallets against 32% platform-wide. Five of the US cohort's twelve biggest markets were bets on the Iran war, and the largest, at $20.8 million, was a novelty market on whether Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy would wear a suit. Regulated US venues mostly stick to economic data and elections, so that demand flows offshore.
One fear the data does not support is an American edge. US wallets backed the winner 81.9% of the time against 80.3% for everyone else, effectively no advantage.
The report lands while the CFTC investigates Polymarket's marketing practices and takes comments on new prediction market rules, and while Kalshi raises money at a $40 billion valuation on the regulated side of the same demand. The ban did not end US participation, it just moved the market somewhere US rules cannot see it. Worth watching.
People Also Ask
Is Polymarket legal in the United States?
No. Polymarket cannot legally serve US customers and blocks US IP addresses, but Allium's onchain data shows US-linked wallets still traded about $571 million in its political markets over the past year.
How do Americans get around the Polymarket ban?
According to Allium, a VPN masks a user's location, and because Polymarket runs on crypto wallets and stablecoins there is no bank account or identity check left to stop a blocked user.
What do US traders bet on most on Polymarket?
Geopolitics. US wallets put 46% of their notional into geopolitical markets versus 36% platform-wide, including five Iran war markets among the US cohort's twelve largest.
Are US prediction market traders better at picking winners?
No. Allium found US wallets backed the winning outcome 81.9% of the time versus 80.3% for everyone else, effectively no edge over the rest of the market.